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Ostrov vs Újezd Praha 4 — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Ostrov
Ostrov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 19Stadion FK Ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ostrov40%
×Draw24%
Újezd Praha 436%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrov
1.60
Újezd Praha 4
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ostrov
1.69
Újezd Praha 4
1.85

allows per match

Ostrov
1.13
Újezd Praha 4
1.51

finishing

Ostrov+0.00on par
Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrov ↓

Újezd Praha 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ostrov or draw
64%
Ostrov or Újezd Praha 4
76%
Draw or Újezd Praha 4
60%

Winning margin

Ostrov wins by 2+
20%
Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ostrov 1+ goals
80%
Ostrov 2+ goals
47%
Ostrov 3+ goals
22%
Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
77%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
44%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ostrov (draw refunded)
53%
Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.13 · 68 matches

Újezd Praha 4 away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrov attack 1.69 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Újezd Praha 4 attack 1.85 + Ostrov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ostrov scores more
40%
level
24%
Újezd Praha 4 scores more
36%

Ostrov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostrov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrov vs Újezd Praha 4

Ostrov and Újezd Praha 4 drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Ostrov in Ostrov.