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Újezd Praha 4 vs Kladno — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kladno
Kladno
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Újezd Praha 444%
×Draw23%
Kladno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újezd Praha 4
1.79
Kladno
1.52

Újezd Praha 4 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4
2.30
Kladno
2.02

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4
1.02
Kladno
1.29

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par
Kladno+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Kladno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw
67%
Újezd Praha 4 or Kladno
77%
Draw or Kladno
56%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
24%
Kladno wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
83%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
53%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
26%
Kladno 1+ goals
78%
Kladno 2+ goals
45%
Kladno 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
57%
Kladno (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Kladno away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Kladno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kladno attack 2.02 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more
44%
level
23%
Kladno scores more
33%

Újezd Praha 4 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újezd Praha 4 vs Kladno

Újezd Praha 4 beat Kladno 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Újezd Praha 4 UMT in Praha-Újezd.