Kladno 1–0 Újezd Praha 4: Result & Stats

Kladno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Újezd Praha 4

6/8/2024

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 30Stadion Františka Kloze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kladno53%

×Draw21%

Újezd Praha 426%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KladnoExpected goals in this matchÚjezd Praha 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.44

Kladno

2.11

Újezd Praha 4

1.44

Kladno creates 47% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

2.71

creates per match

1.85

1.02

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Kladno

2.71

Újezd Praha 4

1.85

allows per match

Kladno

1.02

Újezd Praha 4

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kladno+0.00on par

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kladno ↓

Újezd Praha 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kladno or draw

74%

Kladno or Újezd Praha 4

79%

Draw or Újezd Praha 4

47%

Winning margin

Kladno wins by 2+

31%

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kladno 1+ goals

88%

Kladno 2+ goals

62%

Kladno 3+ goals

35%

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals

76%

Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals

42%

Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kladno (draw refunded)

67%

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kladno at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Újezd Praha 4 away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kladno attack 2.71 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.11

Újezd Praha 4 attack 1.85 + Kladno defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kladno scores more

53%

level

21%

Újezd Praha 4 scores more

26%

Kladno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff