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Újezd Praha 4 vs Hřebeč — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hřebeč
Hřebeč
10/19/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 11Újezd Praha 4 UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Újezd Praha 465%
×Draw18%
Hřebeč16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Újezd Praha 4
2.37
Hřebeč
1.09

Újezd Praha 4 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Újezd Praha 4
2.30
Hřebeč
1.17

allows per match

Újezd Praha 4
1.02
Hřebeč
2.43

finishing

Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par
Hřebeč+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Újezd Praha 4 ↓

Hřebeč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Újezd Praha 4 or draw
84%
Újezd Praha 4 or Hřebeč
82%
Draw or Hřebeč
35%

Winning margin

Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
43%
Hřebeč wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
91%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
68%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
42%
Hřebeč 1+ goals
66%
Hřebeč 2+ goals
30%
Hřebeč 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
80%
Hřebeč (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Újezd Praha 4 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Hřebeč away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Újezd Praha 4 attack 2.30 + Hřebeč defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hřebeč attack 1.17 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Újezd Praha 4 scores more
65%
level
18%
Hřebeč scores more
16%

Újezd Praha 4 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Újezd Praha 4 vs Hřebeč

Újezd Praha 4 beat Hřebeč 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Újezd Praha 4 UMT in Praha-Újezd.