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Hřebeč vs Újezd Praha 4 — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Hřebeč
Hřebeč
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 17Stadion SK Hřebeč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hřebeč35%
×Draw23%
Újezd Praha 442%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hřebeč
1.61
Újezd Praha 4
1.79

Újezd Praha 4 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 59 away

creates per match

Hřebeč
1.72
Újezd Praha 4
1.85

allows per match

Hřebeč
1.72
Újezd Praha 4
1.51

finishing

Hřebeč+0.00on par
Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hřebeč ↓

Újezd Praha 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hřebeč or draw
58%
Hřebeč or Újezd Praha 4
77%
Draw or Újezd Praha 4
65%

Winning margin

Hřebeč wins by 2+
17%
Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hřebeč 1+ goals
80%
Hřebeč 2+ goals
48%
Hřebeč 3+ goals
22%
Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
83%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
53%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hřebeč (draw refunded)
45%
Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hřebeč at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Újezd Praha 4 away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hřebeč attack 1.72 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Újezd Praha 4 attack 1.85 + Hřebeč defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hřebeč scores more
35%
level
23%
Újezd Praha 4 scores more
42%

Újezd Praha 4 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hřebeč vs Újezd Praha 4

Újezd Praha 4 beat Hřebeč 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hřebeč in Hřebeč.