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UJ Krakow W vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

UJ Krakow W
UJ Krakow W
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
10/31/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 10Boisko UJ Kampus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

UJ Krakow W40%
×Draw23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UJ Krakow W
1.64
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

UJ Krakow W
1.55
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.21

allows per match

UJ Krakow W
1.91
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.73

finishing

UJ Krakow W+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UJ Krakow W ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UJ Krakow W or draw
63%
UJ Krakow W or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
77%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
60%

Winning margin

UJ Krakow W wins by 2+
20%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UJ Krakow W 1+ goals
81%
UJ Krakow W 2+ goals
49%
UJ Krakow W 3+ goals
23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
79%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
46%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)
52%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UJ Krakow W at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UJ Krakow W attack 1.55 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 1.21 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UJ Krakow W scores more
40%
level
23%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
37%

UJ Krakow W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UJ Krakow W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: UJ Krakow W 4–4 Rekord Bielsko-Biala W

UJ Krakow W and Rekord Bielsko-Biala W drew 4-4 in Ekstraliga Women on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at Boisko UJ Kampus in Kraków.