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Rekord Bielsko-Biala W vs UJ Krakow W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UJ Krakow W
UJ Krakow W
9/9/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 4Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W39%
×Draw26%
UJ Krakow W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.40
UJ Krakow W
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
0.94
UJ Krakow W
0.82

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W
1.81
UJ Krakow W
1.86

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W+0.00on par
UJ Krakow W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W ↓

UJ Krakow W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or draw
65%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W or UJ Krakow W
74%
Draw or UJ Krakow W
61%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W wins by 2+
18%
UJ Krakow W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1+ goals
75%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 2+ goals
41%
Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 3+ goals
17%
UJ Krakow W 1+ goals
73%
UJ Krakow W 2+ goals
38%
UJ Krakow W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W (draw refunded)
53%
UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

UJ Krakow W away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W attack 0.94 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

UJ Krakow W attack 0.82 + Rekord Bielsko-Biala W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W scores more
39%
level
26%
UJ Krakow W scores more
35%

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biala W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 1–1 UJ Krakow W

Rekord Bielsko-Biala W and UJ Krakow W drew 1-1 in Ekstraliga Women on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion BTS Rekord in Bielsko-Biała.