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UJ Krakow W vs Pogon Tczew W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

UJ Krakow W
UJ Krakow W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
8/10/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 1Boisko UJ Kampus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

UJ Krakow W55%
×Draw21%
Pogon Tczew W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UJ Krakow W
2.18
Pogon Tczew W
1.40

UJ Krakow W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

UJ Krakow W
1.55
Pogon Tczew W
0.88

allows per match

UJ Krakow W
1.91
Pogon Tczew W
2.81

finishing

UJ Krakow W+0.00on par
Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UJ Krakow W ↓

Pogon Tczew W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

UJ Krakow W or draw
76%
UJ Krakow W or Pogon Tczew W
79%
Draw or Pogon Tczew W
45%

Winning margin

UJ Krakow W wins by 2+
33%
Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UJ Krakow W 1+ goals
89%
UJ Krakow W 2+ goals
64%
UJ Krakow W 3+ goals
37%
Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
75%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
41%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)
69%
Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UJ Krakow W at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Pogon Tczew W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UJ Krakow W attack 1.55 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.18

Pogon Tczew W attack 0.88 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

UJ Krakow W scores more
55%
level
21%
Pogon Tczew W scores more
24%

UJ Krakow W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UJ Krakow W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UJ Krakow W vs Pogon Tczew W

UJ Krakow W beat Pogon Tczew W 1-0 in Ekstraliga Women on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Boisko UJ Kampus in Kraków.