Pogon Tczew W 1–1 UJ Krakow W: Result & Stats

Pogon Tczew W

FT

1 – 1

UJ Krakow W

9/2/2023

Ekstraliga Women · Round 3Stadion przy ulicy Elżbiety

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pogon Tczew W30%

×Draw22%

UJ Krakow W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon Tczew WExpected goals in this matchUJ Krakow W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.90

Pogon Tczew W

1.49

UJ Krakow W

1.90

UJ Krakow W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

1.12

creates per match

0.82

2.97

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W

1.12

UJ Krakow W

0.82

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W

2.97

UJ Krakow W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

UJ Krakow W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

UJ Krakow W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw

53%

Pogon Tczew W or UJ Krakow W

78%

Draw or UJ Krakow W

70%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+

14%

UJ Krakow W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals

77%

Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals

44%

Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals

19%

UJ Krakow W 1+ goals

85%

UJ Krakow W 2+ goals

56%

UJ Krakow W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)

39%

UJ Krakow W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

UJ Krakow W away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + UJ Krakow W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

UJ Krakow W attack 0.82 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more

30%

level

22%

UJ Krakow W scores more

47%

UJ Krakow W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UJ Krakow W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff