Uherský Brod 1–0 Tatran Bohunice: Result & Stats

Uherský Brod

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tatran Bohunice

M. Michalec 77'

9/16/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 7Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Uherský Brod50%

×Draw25%

Tatran Bohunice25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uherský BrodExpected goals in this matchTatran Bohunice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.07

Uherský Brod

1.61

Tatran Bohunice

1.07

Uherský Brod creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.88

1.26

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Uherský Brod

1.57

Tatran Bohunice

0.88

allows per match

Uherský Brod

1.26

Tatran Bohunice

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Tatran Bohunice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw

75%

Uherský Brod or Tatran Bohunice

75%

Draw or Tatran Bohunice

50%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

26%

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

80%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

48%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

22%

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

66%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

29%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

66%

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.57 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Uherský Brod scores more

50%

level

25%

Tatran Bohunice scores more

25%

Uherský Brod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

M. Novotny

77'

M. Michalec

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff