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Tatran Bohunice vs Uherský Brod — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Tatran Bohunice
Tatran Bohunice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
V. Mazuryk 37'
4/20/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 24Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tatran Bohunice42%
×Draw24%
Uherský Brod33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Bohunice
1.57
Uherský Brod
1.37

Tatran Bohunice creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice
0.88
Uherský Brod
0.92

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice
1.82
Uherský Brod
2.26

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par
Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Uherský Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw
67%
Tatran Bohunice or Uherský Brod
76%
Draw or Uherský Brod
58%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+
21%
Uherský Brod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals
79%
Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals
46%
Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals
21%
Uherský Brod 1+ goals
75%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
40%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)
56%
Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.26 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Uherský Brod defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.57

Uherský Brod attack 0.92 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more
42%
level
24%
Uherský Brod scores more
33%

Tatran Bohunice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
D. Smerda← D. Smerda
33'
N. Tilkeridis← N. Tilkeridis
37'
V. Mazuryk
43'
P. Cervenka
45'
N. Tilkeridis
60'
J. Obdrzalek← J. Obdrzalek
60'
K. Obadal← K. Obadal
70'
J. Vrbka← J. Vrbka
70'
M. Vintr← P. Martinek
73'
R. Soucek
90+2'
S. Bulko← S. Bulko
90+3'
J. Obdrzalek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Tatran Bohunice 0–1 Uherský Brod

Uherský Brod beat Tatran Bohunice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 20, 2024.

Goals: V. Mazuryk (37').

The match was played at Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice in Brno.