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Uherský Brod vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
CANC
14:30
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
4/11/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 23Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Uherský Brod33%
×Draw25%
Odra Petřkovice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uherský Brod
1.33
Odra Petřkovice
1.54

Odra Petřkovice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 12 away

creates per match

Uherský Brod
1.59
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Uherský Brod
1.26
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw
58%
Uherský Brod or Odra Petřkovice
75%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
67%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+
14%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals
74%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
38%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
15%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
79%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
45%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
44%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Uherský Brod scores more
33%
level
25%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
42%

Odra Petřkovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uherský Brod face Odra Petřkovice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Uherský Brod hosting Odra Petřkovice. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Uherský Brod host Odra Petřkovice at Orelský stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.