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Odra Petřkovice vs Uherský Brod — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
FT
4 – 2
Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
L. Ptacek 82'
V. Wala 61'
F. Kosak 35' (OG)
O. Moucka 22'
V. Gettler 66'
M. Jansa 32'
9/12/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 6Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice59%
×Draw22%
Uherský Brod19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.96
Uherský Brod
1.03

Odra Petřkovice creates 90% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Uherský Brod
0.93

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Uherský Brod
2.28

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Uherský Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
81%
Odra Petřkovice or Uherský Brod
78%
Draw or Uherský Brod
41%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
35%
Uherský Brod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
86%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
58%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
31%
Uherský Brod 1+ goals
64%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
28%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
75%
Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.96

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
59%
level
22%
Uherský Brod scores more
19%

Odra Petřkovice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Neumann
22'
O. Moucka
30'
R. Plesnik
32'
M. Jansa
35'
F. KosakOwn goal
53'
M. Malenovsky
61'
V. Wala
66'
V. Gettler
81'
J. Svrcek
82'
L. Ptacek
87'
M. Vana
90+2'
M. Praus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odra Petřkovice vs Uherský Brod

Odra Petřkovice beat Uherský Brod 4-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 12, 2020.

Goals: O. Moucka (22'), M. Jansa (32'), F. Kosak (35' o.g.), V. Wala (61'), V. Gettler (66'), L. Ptacek (82').

The match was played at Stadion Petřkovice in Ostrava.