Uherský Brod 4–0 Frýdlant: Result & Stats

Uherský Brod

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Frýdlant

11/4/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14UMT Lapač

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Uherský Brod56%

×Draw22%

Frýdlant22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uherský BrodExpected goals in this matchFrýdlant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.19

Uherský Brod

2.00

Frýdlant

1.19

Uherský Brod creates 68% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.59

creates per match

1.12

1.26

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Uherský Brod

1.59

Frýdlant

1.12

allows per match

Uherský Brod

1.26

Frýdlant

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Frýdlant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw

78%

Uherský Brod or Frýdlant

78%

Draw or Frýdlant

44%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

33%

Frýdlant wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

86%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

59%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

32%

Frýdlant 1+ goals

70%

Frýdlant 2+ goals

33%

Frýdlant 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

71%

Frýdlant (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Frýdlant defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.00

Frýdlant attack 1.12 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Uherský Brod scores more

56%

level

22%

Frýdlant scores more

22%

Uherský Brod at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff