Frýdlant 1–2 Uherský Brod: Result & Stats

Frýdlant

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Uherský Brod

5/20/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 29Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frýdlant48%

×Draw22%

Uherský Brod30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrýdlantExpected goals in this matchUherský Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.44

Frýdlant

1.89

Uherský Brod

1.44

Frýdlant creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

1.50

creates per match

0.93

1.94

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Frýdlant

1.50

Uherský Brod

0.93

allows per match

Frýdlant

1.94

Uherský Brod

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Uherský Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw

70%

Frýdlant or Uherský Brod

78%

Draw or Uherský Brod

52%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+

27%

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals

85%

Frýdlant 2+ goals

56%

Frýdlant 3+ goals

29%

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

76%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

42%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)

62%

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.50 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.89

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Frýdlant defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frýdlant scores more

48%

level

22%

Uherský Brod scores more

30%

Frýdlant at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frýdlant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff