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Uherský Brod vs Frýdek-Místek — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
6/15/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 32Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Uherský Brod42%
×Draw24%
Frýdek-Místek33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uherský Brod
1.58
Frýdek-Místek
1.37

Uherský Brod creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 81 away

creates per match

Uherský Brod
1.59
Frýdek-Místek
1.48

allows per match

Uherský Brod
1.26
Frýdek-Místek
1.58

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Frýdek-Místek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw
67%
Uherský Brod or Frýdek-Místek
76%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek
58%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+
21%
Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals
79%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
47%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
21%
Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
75%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
40%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
56%
Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Uherský Brod scores more
42%
level
24%
Frýdek-Místek scores more
33%

Uherský Brod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Uherský Brod 4–4 Frýdek-Místek

Uherský Brod and Frýdek-Místek drew 4-4 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Orelský stadion in Uherský Brod.