Frýdek-Místek 1–1 Uherský Brod: Result & Stats

Frýdek-Místek

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uherský Brod

11/11/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Frýdek-Místek59%

×Draw22%

Uherský Brod19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-MístekExpected goals in this matchUherský Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.03

Frýdek-Místek

1.98

Uherský Brod

1.03

Frýdek-Místek creates 92% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 61 away

1.69

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.69

Uherský Brod

0.93

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.12

Uherský Brod

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Uherský Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw

81%

Frýdek-Místek or Uherský Brod

78%

Draw or Uherský Brod

41%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

35%

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

86%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

59%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

31%

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

64%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

28%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

76%

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.98

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more

59%

level

22%

Uherský Brod scores more

19%

Frýdek-Místek at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff