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Ugyen Academy vs Thimphu Raven — Premier League 2023

Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
11/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Ugyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ugyen Academy60%
×Draw18%
Thimphu Raven22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ugyen Academy
2.67
Thimphu Raven
1.58

Ugyen Academy creates 69% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ugyen Academy
1.67
Thimphu Raven
1.00

allows per match

Ugyen Academy
2.17
Thimphu Raven
3.67

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par
Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Thimphu Raven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw
78%
Ugyen Academy or Thimphu Raven
82%
Draw or Thimphu Raven
40%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
40%
Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
93%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
74%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
49%
Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
79%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
47%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
73%
Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Thimphu Raven away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more
60%
level
18%
Thimphu Raven scores more
22%

Ugyen Academy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ugyen Academy vs Thimphu Raven

Thimphu Raven beat Ugyen Academy 2-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ugyen Academy Football Field in Khuruthang.