Thimphu Raven 1–1 Ugyen Academy: Result & Stats

Thimphu Raven

FT

1 – 1

Ugyen Academy

8/9/2023

Premier League · Round 2Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Thimphu Raven33%

×Draw19%

Ugyen Academy48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu RavenExpected goals in this matchUgyen Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

2.72

Thimphu Raven

2.27

Ugyen Academy

2.72

Ugyen Academy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

3.89

allows per match

3.55

creates per match

Thimphu Raven

1.00

Ugyen Academy

1.55

allows per match

Thimphu Raven

3.89

Ugyen Academy

3.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu Raven ↓

Ugyen Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Thimphu Raven or draw

52%

Thimphu Raven or Ugyen Academy

81%

Draw or Ugyen Academy

67%

Winning margin

Thimphu Raven wins by 2+

18%

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Thimphu Raven 1+ goals

90%

Thimphu Raven 2+ goals

66%

Thimphu Raven 3+ goals

39%

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals

93%

Ugyen Academy 2+ goals

75%

Ugyen Academy 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)

41%

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu Raven at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Ugyen Academy away — creates 1.55, concedes 3.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Ugyen Academy defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ugyen Academy attack 1.55 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Thimphu Raven scores more

33%

level

19%

Ugyen Academy scores more

48%

Ugyen Academy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff