Ugyen Academy 1–2 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Ugyen Academy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Thimphu City

5/3/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonUgyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ugyen Academy23%

×Draw18%

Thimphu City58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ugyen AcademyExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.62

Ugyen Academy

1.63

Thimphu City

2.62

Thimphu City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

1.67

creates per match

3.06

2.17

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ugyen Academy

1.67

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Ugyen Academy

2.17

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw

42%

Ugyen Academy or Thimphu City

82%

Draw or Thimphu City

77%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+

11%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals

80%

Ugyen Academy 2+ goals

48%

Ugyen Academy 3+ goals

22%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

93%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

73%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)

28%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more

23%

level

18%

Thimphu City scores more

58%

Thimphu City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff