Thimphu City 6–2 Ugyen Academy: Result & Stats

Thimphu City

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Ugyen Academy

8/14/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonChanglimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Thimphu City78%

×Draw12%

Ugyen Academy10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thimphu CityExpected goals in this matchUgyen Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.48

1.25

Thimphu City

3.48

Ugyen Academy

1.25

Thimphu City creates 178% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

3.42

creates per match

1.55

0.94

allows per match

3.55

creates per match

Thimphu City

3.42

Ugyen Academy

1.55

allows per match

Thimphu City

0.94

Ugyen Academy

3.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thimphu City ↓

Ugyen Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Thimphu City or draw

90%

Thimphu City or Ugyen Academy

88%

Draw or Ugyen Academy

22%

Winning margin

Thimphu City wins by 2+

60%

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Thimphu City 1+ goals

97%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

85%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

65%

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals

71%

Ugyen Academy 2+ goals

36%

Ugyen Academy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

88%

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thimphu City at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Ugyen Academy away — creates 1.55, concedes 3.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thimphu City attack 3.42 + Ugyen Academy defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 3.48

Ugyen Academy attack 1.55 + Thimphu City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Thimphu City scores more

78%

level

12%

Ugyen Academy scores more

10%

Thimphu City at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff