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Ugyen Academy vs Namlha — Premier League 2023

Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Namlha
Namlha
11/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Ugyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ugyen Academy71%
×Draw14%
Namlha14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ugyen Academy
3.39
Namlha
1.53

Ugyen Academy creates 122% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ugyen Academy
1.67
Namlha
0.89

allows per match

Ugyen Academy
2.17
Namlha
5.11

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par
Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Namlha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw
86%
Ugyen Academy or Namlha
86%
Draw or Namlha
29%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
53%
Namlha wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
96%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
84%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
64%
Namlha 1+ goals
78%
Namlha 2+ goals
45%
Namlha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
83%
Namlha (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.39

Namlha attack 0.89 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more
71%
level
14%
Namlha scores more
14%

Ugyen Academy at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ugyen Academy 3–2 Namlha

Ugyen Academy beat Namlha 3-2 in Premier League on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Ugyen Academy Football Field in Khuruthang.