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Namlha vs Ugyen Academy — Premier League 2026

Namlha
Namlha
FT
2 – 2
Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
9/13/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha31%
×Draw19%
Ugyen Academy50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namlha
2.08
Ugyen Academy
2.63

Ugyen Academy creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Namlha
0.78
Ugyen Academy
1.48

allows per match

Namlha
3.78
Ugyen Academy
3.38

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par
Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

Ugyen Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Namlha or draw
50%
Namlha or Ugyen Academy
81%
Draw or Ugyen Academy
69%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+
16%
Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals
87%
Namlha 2+ goals
61%
Namlha 3+ goals
34%
Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
93%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
73%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)
38%
Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Ugyen Academy away — creates 1.48, concedes 3.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + Ugyen Academy defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ugyen Academy attack 1.48 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Namlha scores more
31%
level
19%
Ugyen Academy scores more
50%

Ugyen Academy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Namlha 2–2 Ugyen Academy

Namlha and Ugyen Academy drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.