Ugyen Academy 1–2 Druk Lhayul: Result & Stats

Ugyen Academy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Druk Lhayul

10/26/2023

Premier League · Round 5Ugyen Academy Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ugyen Academy45%

×Draw20%

Druk Lhayul35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ugyen AcademyExpected goals in this matchDruk Lhayul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.98

Ugyen Academy

2.28

Druk Lhayul

1.98

Ugyen Academy creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.78

2.17

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Ugyen Academy

1.67

Druk Lhayul

1.78

allows per match

Ugyen Academy

2.17

Druk Lhayul

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ugyen Academy ↓

Druk Lhayul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Ugyen Academy or draw

65%

Ugyen Academy or Druk Lhayul

80%

Draw or Druk Lhayul

55%

Winning margin

Ugyen Academy wins by 2+

27%

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ugyen Academy 1+ goals

90%

Ugyen Academy 2+ goals

66%

Ugyen Academy 3+ goals

39%

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

86%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

59%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)

57%

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ugyen Academy at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ugyen Academy attack 1.67 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.28

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Ugyen Academy defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ugyen Academy scores more

45%

level

20%

Druk Lhayul scores more

35%

Ugyen Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ugyen Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff