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Druk Lhayul vs Ugyen Academy — Premier League 2023

Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
FT
6 – 4
Ugyen Academy
Ugyen Academy
8/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul59%
×Draw16%
Ugyen Academy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Druk Lhayul
3.50
Ugyen Academy
2.33

Druk Lhayul creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Druk Lhayul
3.44
Ugyen Academy
1.55

allows per match

Druk Lhayul
3.11
Ugyen Academy
3.55

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par
Ugyen Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Ugyen Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw
75%
Druk Lhayul or Ugyen Academy
84%
Draw or Ugyen Academy
41%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
40%
Ugyen Academy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
97%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
85%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
66%
Ugyen Academy 1+ goals
90%
Ugyen Academy 2+ goals
67%
Ugyen Academy 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
70%
Ugyen Academy (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Ugyen Academy away — creates 1.55, concedes 3.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Ugyen Academy defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 3.50

Ugyen Academy attack 1.55 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more
59%
level
16%
Ugyen Academy scores more
25%

Druk Lhayul at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Druk Lhayul 6–4 Ugyen Academy

Druk Lhayul beat Ugyen Academy 6-4 in Premier League on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.