Uganda 1–0 Cape Verde Islands: Result & Stats

Uganda

FT

1 – 0

Cape Verde Islands

11/17/2018

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6Mandela National Stadium (Kampala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Uganda39%

×Draw32%

Cape Verde Islands29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UgandaExpected goals in this matchCape Verde Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.83

Uganda

1.02

Cape Verde Islands

0.83

Uganda creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

0.88

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Uganda

0.88

Cape Verde Islands

0.67

allows per match

Uganda

1.00

Cape Verde Islands

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uganda+0.00on par

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uganda ↓

Cape Verde Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Uganda or draw

71%

Uganda or Cape Verde Islands

68%

Draw or Cape Verde Islands

61%

Winning margin

Uganda wins by 2+

15%

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Uganda 1+ goals

64%

Uganda 2+ goals

27%

Uganda 3+ goals

8%

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals

56%

Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals

20%

Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Uganda (draw refunded)

58%

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uganda at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uganda attack 0.88 + Cape Verde Islands defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cape Verde Islands attack 0.67 + Uganda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uganda scores more

39%

level

32%

Cape Verde Islands scores more

29%

Uganda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uganda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff