Cape Verde Islands 0–1 Uganda: Result & Stats

Cape Verde Islands

FT

0 – 1

Uganda

6/11/2017

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Estádio da Várzea (Praia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cape Verde Islands43%

×Draw29%

Uganda28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cape Verde IslandsExpected goals in this matchUganda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.92

Cape Verde Islands

1.23

Uganda

0.92

Cape Verde Islands creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

0.63

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cape Verde Islands

1.25

Uganda

1.20

allows per match

Cape Verde Islands

0.63

Uganda

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Uganda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Verde Islands ↓

Uganda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cape Verde Islands or draw

72%

Cape Verde Islands or Uganda

71%

Draw or Uganda

57%

Winning margin

Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+

19%

Uganda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals

71%

Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals

35%

Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals

13%

Uganda 1+ goals

60%

Uganda 2+ goals

23%

Uganda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)

61%

Uganda (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Verde Islands at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Uganda away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.25 + Uganda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Uganda attack 1.20 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cape Verde Islands scores more

43%

level

29%

Uganda scores more

28%

Cape Verde Islands at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff