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Ufa U20 vs Krasnodar U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Ufa U20
Ufa U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
4/21/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 6BetBoom Аrena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ufa U2022%
×Draw21%
Krasnodar U1957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ufa U20
1.18
Krasnodar U19
2.02

Krasnodar U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ufa U20
1.08
Krasnodar U19
1.94

allows per match

Ufa U20
2.11
Krasnodar U19
1.27

finishing

Ufa U20+0.00on par
Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ufa U20 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ufa U20 or draw
43%
Ufa U20 or Krasnodar U19
79%
Draw or Krasnodar U19
78%

Winning margin

Ufa U20 wins by 2+
9%
Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ufa U20 1+ goals
69%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
33%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
12%
Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
87%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
60%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
28%
Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ufa U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ufa U20 attack 1.08 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + Ufa U20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ufa U20 scores more
22%
level
21%
Krasnodar U19 scores more
57%

Krasnodar U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ufa U20 vs Krasnodar U19

Ufa U20 and Krasnodar U19 drew 0-0 in Youth Championship on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at BetBoom Аrena in Ufa.