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Krasnodar U19 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
3/11/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 1Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Krasnodar U1970%
×Draw17%
Ufa U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.50
Ufa U20
0.98

Krasnodar U19 creates 155% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 40 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
87%
Krasnodar U19 or Ufa U20
83%
Draw or Ufa U20
30%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
48%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
92%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
71%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
45%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
62%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
26%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
84%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
70%
level
17%
Ufa U20 scores more
13%

Krasnodar U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Krasnodar U19 3–0 Ufa U20

Krasnodar U19 beat Ufa U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.