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Udon Thani vs Ubon UMT — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
2 – 1
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
2/22/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Udon Thani48%
×Draw25%
Ubon UMT26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.56
Ubon UMT
1.08

Udon Thani creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Ubon UMT
0.82

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Ubon UMT
1.76

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
74%
Udon Thani or Ubon UMT
75%
Draw or Ubon UMT
52%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
25%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
79%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
46%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
21%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
66%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
29%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
65%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Udon Thani scores more
48%
level
25%
Ubon UMT scores more
26%

Udon Thani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udon Thani vs Ubon UMT

Udon Thani beat Ubon UMT 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 22, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).