Ubon UMT 0–1 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Ubon UMT

FT

0 – 1

Udon Thani

7/7/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 19UMT Stadium (Ubon Ratchathani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ubon UMT39%

×Draw26%

Udon Thani36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ubon UMTExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.34

Ubon UMT

1.41

Udon Thani

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

0.88

creates per match

1.15

1.53

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ubon UMT

0.88

Udon Thani

1.15

allows per match

Ubon UMT

1.53

Udon Thani

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ubon UMT ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ubon UMT or draw

64%

Ubon UMT or Udon Thani

74%

Draw or Udon Thani

61%

Winning margin

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

18%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

76%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

41%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

17%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

74%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

39%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

52%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ubon UMT at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ubon UMT attack 0.88 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.41

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Ubon UMT defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ubon UMT scores more

39%

level

26%

Udon Thani scores more

36%

Ubon UMT at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff