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Udon Thani vs Sukhothai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
11/13/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13SAT Stadium Udon Thani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Udon Thani34%
×Draw24%
Sukhothai FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.42
Sukhothai FC
1.58

Sukhothai FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Sukhothai FC
1.82

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Sukhothai FC
1.47

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
59%
Udon Thani or Sukhothai FC
76%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
66%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
16%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
76%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
41%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
17%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
79%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
47%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
45%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Udon Thani scores more
34%
level
24%
Sukhothai FC scores more
41%

Sukhothai FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Udon Thani vs Sukhothai FC

Udon Thani beat Sukhothai FC 4-1 in Thai League 2 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at SAT Stadium Udon Thani in Udon Thani.