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Sukhothai FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
3/27/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC64%
×Draw19%
Udon Thani17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.35
Udon Thani
1.14

Sukhothai FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
2.76
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.12
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
83%
Sukhothai FC or Udon Thani
81%
Draw or Udon Thani
36%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
42%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
90%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
68%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
41%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
68%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
32%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
79%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.35

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
64%
level
19%
Udon Thani scores more
17%

Sukhothai FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sukhothai FC 5–0 Udon Thani

Sukhothai FC beat Udon Thani 5-0 in Thai League 2 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.