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Udon Thani vs Rayong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
8/28/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Udon Thani37%
×Draw25%
Rayong FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.41
Rayong FC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Rayong FC
1.48

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Rayong FC
1.45

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
62%
Udon Thani or Rayong FC
75%
Draw or Rayong FC
63%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
17%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
76%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
41%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
17%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
76%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
41%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
50%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.45 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Rayong FC attack 1.48 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udon Thani scores more
37%
level
25%
Rayong FC scores more
38%

Rayong FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 0–1 Rayong FC

Rayong FC beat Udon Thani 1-0 in Thai League 2 on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.