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Rayong FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Rayong FC
Rayong FC
FT
4 – 2
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
7/31/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Rayong Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Rayong FC55%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayong FC
1.80
Udon Thani
1.03

Rayong FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 82 away

creates per match

Rayong FC
1.67
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Rayong FC
0.92
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Rayong FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayong FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rayong FC or draw
78%
Rayong FC or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
45%

Winning margin

Rayong FC wins by 2+
31%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayong FC 1+ goals
83%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
54%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
27%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
64%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
28%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayong FC (draw refunded)
72%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayong FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayong FC attack 1.67 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Rayong FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rayong FC scores more
55%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
22%

Rayong FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Rayong FC 4–2 Udon Thani

Rayong FC beat Udon Thani 4-2 in Thai League 2 on July 31, 2019.

The match was played at Rayong Stadium (Rayong).