Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Udon Thani vs Police Tero — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
1 – 0
Police Tero
Police Tero
3/10/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Udon Thani41%
×Draw25%
Police Tero34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.50
Police Tero
1.36

Udon Thani creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 52 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Police Tero
1.38

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Police Tero
1.63

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Police Tero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
66%
Udon Thani or Police Tero
75%
Draw or Police Tero
59%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
20%
Police Tero wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
78%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
44%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
19%
Police Tero 1+ goals
74%
Police Tero 2+ goals
39%
Police Tero 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
54%
Police Tero (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Police Tero away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Police Tero defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Police Tero attack 1.38 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Udon Thani scores more
41%
level
25%
Police Tero scores more
34%

Udon Thani at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 1–0 Police Tero

Udon Thani beat Police Tero 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).