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Police Tero vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Police Tero
Police Tero
FT
3 – 2
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
7/20/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 21Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Police Tero56%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police Tero
1.79
Udon Thani
1.01

Police Tero creates 77% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Police Tero
1.69
Udon Thani
1.16

allows per match

Police Tero
0.86
Udon Thani
1.89

finishing

Police Tero+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police Tero ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Police Tero or draw
79%
Police Tero or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
44%

Winning margin

Police Tero wins by 2+
31%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Police Tero 1+ goals
83%
Police Tero 2+ goals
53%
Police Tero 3+ goals
26%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
64%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
27%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Police Tero (draw refunded)
72%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police Tero at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.86 · 51 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.89 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police Tero attack 1.69 + Udon Thani defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Udon Thani attack 1.16 + Police Tero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Police Tero scores more
56%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
21%

Police Tero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Police Tero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Police Tero 3–2 Udon Thani

Police Tero beat Udon Thani 3-2 in Thai League 2 on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Boonyachinda Stadium (Bangkok).