Udon Thani 2–1 Navy FC: Result & Stats

Udon Thani

FT

2 – 1

Navy FC

8/25/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 28Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Udon Thani50%

×Draw24%

Navy FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon ThaniExpected goals in this matchNavy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.19

Udon Thani

1.72

Navy FC

1.19

Udon Thani creates 45% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 51 away

1.37

creates per match

1.02

1.35

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Udon Thani

1.37

Navy FC

1.02

allows per match

Udon Thani

1.35

Navy FC

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Navy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw

74%

Udon Thani or Navy FC

76%

Draw or Navy FC

50%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+

27%

Navy FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals

82%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

51%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

25%

Navy FC 1+ goals

70%

Navy FC 2+ goals

33%

Navy FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

65%

Navy FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Udon Thani scores more

50%

level

24%

Navy FC scores more

26%

Udon Thani at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff