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Navy FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
3 – 2
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
2/21/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navy FC44%
×Draw25%
Udon Thani31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.54
Udon Thani
1.25

Navy FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
69%
Navy FC or Udon Thani
75%
Draw or Udon Thani
56%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
22%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
79%
Navy FC 2+ goals
45%
Navy FC 3+ goals
20%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
71%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
36%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
59%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Navy FC scores more
44%
level
25%
Udon Thani scores more
31%

Navy FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Udon Thani

Navy FC beat Udon Thani 3-2 in Thai League 2 on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.