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Udon Thani vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
4/17/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32SAT Stadium Udon Thani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Udon Thani30%
×Draw26%
Lamphun Warrior44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.16
Lamphun Warrior
1.47

Lamphun Warrior creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
56%
Udon Thani or Lamphun Warrior
74%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
70%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
12%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
69%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
32%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
11%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
77%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
43%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
40%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Udon Thani scores more
30%
level
26%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
44%

Lamphun Warrior at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 1–3 Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Udon Thani 3-1 in Thai League 2 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at SAT Stadium Udon Thani in Udon Thani.