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Lamphun Warrior vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
11/27/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior63%
×Draw20%
Udon Thani17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
2.12
Udon Thani
0.98

Lamphun Warrior creates 116% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
83%
Lamphun Warrior or Udon Thani
80%
Draw or Udon Thani
37%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
40%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
88%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
62%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
35%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
62%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
26%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
79%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.12

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
63%
level
20%
Udon Thani scores more
17%

Lamphun Warrior at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lamphun Warrior 2–0 Udon Thani

Lamphun Warrior beat Udon Thani 2-0 in Thai League 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.