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Udon Thani vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
1 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
9/25/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 31Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Udon Thani39%
×Draw25%
Lampang FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.46
Lampang FC
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 102 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
65%
Udon Thani or Lampang FC
75%
Draw or Lampang FC
61%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
19%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
77%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
43%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
18%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
75%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
40%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
53%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udon Thani scores more
39%
level
25%
Lampang FC scores more
35%

Udon Thani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 1–0 Lampang FC

Udon Thani beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).