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Lampang FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
3/13/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lampang FC52%
×Draw24%
Udon Thani24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.71
Udon Thani
1.08

Lampang FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 82 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
76%
Lampang FC or Udon Thani
76%
Draw or Udon Thani
48%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
28%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
82%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
51%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
24%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
66%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
29%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
68%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lampang FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Udon Thani scores more
24%

Lampang FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Udon Thani

Lampang FC and Udon Thani drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.