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Udon Thani vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
12/4/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 16Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Udon Thani40%
×Draw26%
Chiangmai FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.38
Chiangmai FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Chiangmai FC
1.19

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Chiangmai FC
1.38

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
66%
Udon Thani or Chiangmai FC
74%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
60%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
18%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
75%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
40%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
16%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
72%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
36%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
53%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chiangmai FC attack 1.19 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udon Thani scores more
40%
level
26%
Chiangmai FC scores more
34%

Udon Thani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 0–3 Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat Udon Thani 3-0 in Thai League 2 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium in Udon Thani.