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Chiangmai FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
1 – 3
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
3/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Chiangmai Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC54%
×Draw23%
Udon Thani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.86
Udon Thani
1.14

Chiangmai FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
77%
Chiangmai FC or Udon Thani
77%
Draw or Udon Thani
46%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
31%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
84%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
55%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
28%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
68%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
32%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
70%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Udon Thani scores more
23%

Chiangmai FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chiangmai FC 1–3 Udon Thani

Udon Thani beat Chiangmai FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Chiangmai Municipality Stadium in Chiang Mai.