Udon Thani 1–1 Army United: Result & Stats

Udon Thani

FT

1 – 1

Army United

4/8/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 8Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Udon Thani39%

×Draw26%

Army United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon ThaniExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

Udon Thani

1.36

Army United

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 31 away

1.37

creates per match

1.16

1.35

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Udon Thani

1.37

Army United

1.16

allows per match

Udon Thani

1.35

Army United

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Army United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw

66%

Udon Thani or Army United

74%

Draw or Army United

61%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+

18%

Army United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals

74%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

39%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

16%

Army United 1+ goals

71%

Army United 2+ goals

36%

Army United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

53%

Army United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Army United attack 1.16 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udon Thani scores more

39%

level

26%

Army United scores more

34%

Udon Thani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff