Army United 1–0 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Army United

FT

1 – 0

Udon Thani

3/17/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 6Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Army United53%

×Draw22%

Udon Thani24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Army UnitedExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.23

Army United

1.92

Udon Thani

1.23

Army United creates 56% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 82 away

1.90

creates per match

1.15

1.32

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Army United

1.90

Udon Thani

1.15

allows per match

Army United

1.32

Udon Thani

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Army United+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Army United or draw

76%

Army United or Udon Thani

78%

Draw or Udon Thani

47%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+

31%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals

85%

Army United 2+ goals

57%

Army United 3+ goals

30%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

71%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

35%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)

69%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Army United scores more

53%

level

22%

Udon Thani scores more

24%

Army United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff