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Udon Thani vs Ang Thong FC — Thai League 2 2018

Udon Thani
Udon Thani
FT
2 – 1
Ang Thong FC
Ang Thong FC
6/17/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Udon Thani49%
×Draw24%
Ang Thong FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udon Thani
1.65
Ang Thong FC
1.14

Udon Thani creates 45% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

creates per match

Udon Thani
1.37
Ang Thong FC
0.93

allows per match

Udon Thani
1.35
Ang Thong FC
1.93

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par
Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Ang Thong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw
74%
Udon Thani or Ang Thong FC
76%
Draw or Ang Thong FC
51%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+
26%
Ang Thong FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals
81%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
49%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
23%
Ang Thong FC 1+ goals
68%
Ang Thong FC 2+ goals
32%
Ang Thong FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)
65%
Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Udon Thani scores more
49%
level
24%
Ang Thong FC scores more
26%

Udon Thani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Udon Thani 2–1 Ang Thong FC

Udon Thani beat Ang Thong FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on June 17, 2018.

The match was played at Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani).