Ang Thong FC 0–1 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Ang Thong FC

FT

0 – 1

Udon Thani

2/25/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 3Ang Thong Province Stadium (Ang Thong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ang Thong FC48%

×Draw22%

Udon Thani30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ang Thong FCExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.47

Ang Thong FC

1.90

Udon Thani

1.47

Ang Thong FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 82 away

1.86

creates per match

1.15

1.79

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ang Thong FC

1.86

Udon Thani

1.15

allows per match

Ang Thong FC

1.79

Udon Thani

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ang Thong FC ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ang Thong FC or draw

70%

Ang Thong FC or Udon Thani

78%

Draw or Udon Thani

52%

Winning margin

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+

27%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals

85%

Ang Thong FC 2+ goals

56%

Ang Thong FC 3+ goals

29%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

77%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

43%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)

61%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ang Thong FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ang Thong FC attack 1.86 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ang Thong FC scores more

48%

level

22%

Udon Thani scores more

30%

Ang Thong FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ang Thong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff