Udon Thani 1–0 Air Force Central FC: Result & Stats

Udon Thani

FT

1 – 0

Air Force Central FC

6/29/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 18Udon Thani Institute of PE Stadium (Udon Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Udon Thani48%

×Draw25%

Air Force Central FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udon ThaniExpected goals in this matchAir Force Central FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Udon Thani

1.63

Air Force Central FC

1.18

Udon Thani creates 38% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

1.35

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Udon Thani

1.37

Air Force Central FC

1.00

allows per match

Udon Thani

1.35

Air Force Central FC

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udon Thani ↓

Air Force Central FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Udon Thani or draw

72%

Udon Thani or Air Force Central FC

75%

Draw or Air Force Central FC

52%

Winning margin

Udon Thani wins by 2+

25%

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Udon Thani 1+ goals

80%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

48%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

22%

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals

69%

Air Force Central FC 2+ goals

33%

Air Force Central FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

63%

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udon Thani at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udon Thani attack 1.37 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Udon Thani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Udon Thani scores more

48%

level

25%

Air Force Central FC scores more

28%

Udon Thani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Udon Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff